Publication Date: Wednesday, October 26, 2005
Guest Opinion: Fiddling around while the world warms -- a recipe for disaster
Guest Opinion: Fiddling around while the world warms -- a recipe for disaster
(October 26, 2005) by Stan Van Velsor
I first became aware of the notion of "global warming" in the early 1980s when I was doing graduate work in natural resource management at the University of Michigan -- where in winter global warming seems like an especially unlikely prospect.
Because the consequences of global warming seemed so far into the future, I viewed it as one of many environmental problems facing our society, our world.
But a few years later when I started seeing the world through the eyes of my young children, now aged 4 and 7, I realized that global warming was an issue that was going to impact their lives much more than mine.-- my children literally brought this issue home to me. Finding solutions became a tangible urgency.
As a natural resource professional, I feel an obligation to inform the public of the impending consequences of global warming, and to share my growing concern that it may already be too late to avoid many serious effects. But it may not be too late to avoid the most catastrophic of scenarios.
As a parent, it is my responsibility to be a good steward of the natural resources that support us all and pass on to my children and grandchildren a healthy and prosperous world. The words of David Brower have taken on a new meaning for me: "We don't inherit the Earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children."
I am convinced from reviewing the irrefutable evidence that our Earth is moving toward an unparalleled, climatic disaster, exceeding Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic impacts by orders of magnitude, worldwide. The impacts will be felt at the very heart of our own communities in the Palo Alto/Stanford area, devastating our precious open space woodlands, flooding our homes, and disrupting our water supply.
There is overwhelming scientific evidence that Earth's climate is warming at an unprecedented rate due to the burning of fossil fuels, thus increasing the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Global climate change threatens the lives of millions of people, dooms millions of species to extinction, and will cost the world trillions of dollars (insured losses alone cost $44 billion in 2004) while devastating our economic foundations that we will need to pay for it all.
The change in climate caused by global warming will have irreversible consequences on all aspects of our lives, including flooding coastal and bayfront zones, increasing the frequency and severity of storms, worsening droughts and heat waves, species extinction, and -- as a natural consequence -- increasing geopolitical instability.
As residents of the Bay Area and California, we are not immune.
Over the next 25 to 50 years we can anticipate rising temperatures and a decline in winter rains, which will result in a 30 to 70 percent reduction in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a primary source of both water and electrical power.
The snowpack is a critical source of water during the late spring and summer when 75 percent of California's water use occurs, much of it for food production. It also provides a wealth of winter recreational opportunities. So forget the ski industry -- so much for Ski Week. I have spent many unforgettable weekends skiing and sledding with my family and hope to pass this tradition on to my descendants -- climate permitting.
This summer was one of the hottest on record. We can expect extreme-heat waves and high-temperature events to increase in severity and frequency as global temperatures creep upward in almost imperceptible annual averages, or perhaps in a sudden lurch of change over a few short years.
Those of us living in urban communities are at greatest risk for heat-related illness. And our most vulnerable citizens -- our young and elderly and chronically ill -- will be disproportionately impacted. An increase in the temperature of our urban communities also contributes to the formation of air pollution -- ozone and smog, and the disabling lung ailments to which those contribute.
Another area of particular concern to Bay Area residents is the rising sea level due to the melting of Earth's immense ice caps and glaciers, north and south. The sea level along the California coast has risen approximately 6 inches in the last century and is projected to rise another 8 to 12 inches during the next century.
Our wealth of coastal resources (from rich farmlands and wetland ecosystems to coastal beaches and valuable real estate) are threatened.
Our entire lowlands communities around the South Bay, protected by century-old levees, are made more vulnerable by rising sea levels, not to mention tidal storm surges from increasingly volatile weather patterns. The devastation wreaked by Katrina and Rita vividly brought home to all of us the risks associated with living in a coastal community and the devastating impact that flooding can have on people's lives.
Area water experts predict that several thousand homes in Palo Alto and adjacent bayfront communities are in danger from creek and tidal flooding. Rising sea levels and increasing storm intensity could result in flooding levels similar to those experienced in New Orleans and other coastal communities in Louisiana and Mississippi."
Our nation is feeling the huge economic costs that can result from catastrophic weather events such as Katrina. Several of California's most productive industries (tourism, agriculture, real estate, fishing, insurance, timber) are especially vulnerable to climate disruptions. California's $30 billion agriculture industry leads the nation in production. Yet just a 5-degree Fahrenheit average annual increase in temperature -- as projected over the next few decades -- would significantly undermine our farmland production, especially in the dairy and wine industries.
But we need not react as if the "sky is falling." I am optimistic about the many practical solutions that currently exist.
There are steps we can take now that will have a significant impact on reducing global warming. We can increase the energy efficiency of our homes and businesses, use and promote renewable energy sources such as the power of the wind and sun for producing our electricity, promote mass transit, and sharply increase the fuel efficiency of our vehicles.
But we must act, in our homes and our communities. We must demand action, locally, regionally, statewide, nationally and internationally.
The carbon dioxide we release into the air today will be around for approximately 100 years, so the longer we delay the more serious the consequences will become. Future generations are counting on us to step-up to this challenge. Let's not let them down.
Stan Van Velsor, Ph.D., is global warming program coordinator for the Sierra Club, Loma Prieta Chapter, based in Palo Alto. He can be e-mailed at stan.van.velsor@sierraclub.org.
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